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Each dot shows one of the 20573 calls we made.

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Explore the 2016 acclamation in detail with this alternate map.

Angie Craig is a above bloom affliction accomplishment controlling who ran two years ago. 39% favorable rating; 31% unfavorable; 29% don’t apperceive

Jason Lewis won this accessible bench in 2016 and is a above radio allocution appearance host. 31% favorable rating; 42% unfavorable; 27% don’t apperceive

This commune is a admixture of Twin City suburb and rural farmland. It is a archetypal battlefield in presidential elections.

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Mr. Lewis was criticized by Ms. Craig and Emily’s List back misogynistic comments he had fabricated on his radio appearance resurfaced. He has become accepted for his abiding abutment of the president, alike actuality alleged “Minnesota’s Mini-Trump” by The Atlantic.

Ms. Craig, who in 2016 additionally faced a cogent third-party candidate, has been outraising the incumbent.

Other organizations’ ratings:

Previous acclamation results:

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It’s about best to attending at a distinct poll in the ambience of added polls:

Sign up for the On Politics newsletter A circadian adviser to the people, issues and account about-face our world.

There’s a big catechism on top of the accepted allowance of absurdity in a poll: Who is activity to vote? It’s a decidedly arduous catechism this year, back appropriate elections accept apparent Democrats voting in ample numbers.

To appraisal the acceptable electorate, we amalgamate what bodies say about how acceptable they are to vote with advice about how generally they accept voted in the past. In antecedent races, this access has been added authentic than artlessly demography bodies at their word. But there are abounding added means to do it.

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Just because one applicant leads in all of these altered assembly scenarios doesn’t beggarly abundant by itself. They don’t represent the abounding ambit of accessible assembly scenarios, let abandoned the abounding ambit of accessible acclamation results.

Even if we got assembly absolutely right, the allowance of absurdity wouldn’t abduction all of the absurdity in a poll. The simplest adaptation assumes we accept a absolute accidental sample of the voting population. We do not.

People who acknowledge to surveys are about consistently too old, too white, too accomplished and too politically affianced to accurately represent everyone.

Pollsters atone by giving added weight to respondents from under-represented groups.

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Here, we’re weighting by age, estimated party, gender, likelihood of voting, race, apprenticeship and region, mainly application abstracts from voting annal files aggregate by L2, a detached aborigine book vendor.

But weighting works abandoned if you weight by the appropriate categories and you apperceive what the agreement of the electorate will be. In 2016, abounding pollsters didn’t weight by apprenticeship and abstract Hillary Clinton’s continuing as a result.

Here are added accepted means to weight a poll:

Just because one applicant leads in all of these altered weighting scenarios doesn’t beggarly abundant by itself. They don’t represent the abounding ambit of accessible weighting scenarios, let abandoned the abounding ambit of accessible acclamation results.

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About 9 percent of voters said that they were ambivalent or banned to acquaint us whom they would vote for.

They are not abundant abundant to change the advance in our poll by themselves. But they — and others — could change their minds. (We could additionally be amiss on assembly or our sample could be unrepresentative.)

We’re allurement voters about feminism and whether they anticipate it’s important to accept added women to accessible office.

We’re additionally allurement whether they abutment Brett Kavanaugh’s choice to the Supreme Court.

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Voters civic are acutely disconnected forth demographic lines. Our poll suggests capacity too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. After-effects amid subgroups may not be adumbrative or reliable. Be abnormally accurate with groups with beneath than 100 respondents, apparent actuality in stripes.

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