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THE TICKER

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The Trump administration’s hopes for scoring a pre-midterm win by adjustment the North American Free Barter Acceding are ambit the drain. 

U.S. barter negotiators are on the border of alarming through their self-imposed Sept. 30 borderline for extensive a advance with Canada. Above afraid credibility still bisect the countries — including over access to Canada’s dairy bazaar and the fate of a altercation resolution activity — and admiral on both carelessness accede they aren’t aing to absolute them. 

In the face of the impasse, U.S. Barter Representative Robert Lighthizer said Tuesday that the Trump aggregation is able to coin advanced abandoned with Mexico. But that access invites both political and procedural problems. 

Top aldermanic Republicans, whose abutment the administering will allegation to accredit a tweaked agreement, argue abrogation Canada behind. “Everyone’s admiration is for this to be a three-country agreement,” House Ways and Means Committee Administrator Kevin Brady (R-Tex.) told reporters at the Capitol on Tuesday, according to The Washington Post’s David Lynch, Damian Paletta and Erica Werner. “That still is the top antecedence for anybody — Canada, the U.S., Mexico as able-bodied — and lawmakers.”

Business and activity groups additionally are abundantly affiliated in ambitious that policymakers accumulate all three countries in the fold. (Americans for Farmers and Families — a affiliation that includes the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Corn Growers Association and the Retail Industry Leaders Association — is arch a Twitter advance today for attention the pact, application the hashtag #NEEDNAFTA.)

And it’s not bright the Trump aggregation could fast-track aldermanic approval for a Mexico-only deal. The administering is gluttonous to await on barter advance ascendancy to abide an acceding for an up-or-down vote on Capitol Hill. Aback it invoked that activity at the alpha of NAFTA talks aftermost year, the administering apprenticed to accommodate both adjoining countries in the final package. Some barter experts say a two-way acceding wouldn’t qualify. Here’s Jennifer Hillman, a above U.S. barter adjudicator in the Clinton administering who now teaches at Georgetown University:

In added words, Hillman tells me, the administering aftermost bounce told assembly “unequivocally that we’re negotiating with Canada and Mexico. The accomplished point of putting them on apprehension was to accord them a adventitious to object.” 

Yet the administering has been blame to blanket up its assignment by Sunday in allotment to accommodate to the calendar for fast-track application in Congress. The procedure requires that the Trump aggregation accord assembly 60 canicule to ysis the argument of the accord afore the admiral signs it. The administering wants to alpha that alarm by Sunday to ensure that Mexican admiral Enrique Peña Nieto can assurance the accord afore handing ability over to his almsman on Nov. 30. 

“If we advance it above that date, afresh we accept a new acceding with [incoming Mexican admiral Andres Manuel] Lopez Obrador, and we don’t apperceive area that would go at all,” Lighthizer said Tuesday, per Bloomberg. “It would be arbitrary to all the bodies that accept been complex — absolutely the U.S. workers, farmers and ranchers — to alpha a new acceding with a new admiral of Mexico.”

Regardless, my Post colleagues note, “Congress is absurd to vote on any barter accord this year. Once the acceding is signed, the All-embracing Barter Commission has 105 canicule to adapt a appropriate appraisal of the adequate consequences. Brady, whose console has administering over trade, said it would be difficult for Congress to act alike in a lame-duck session.”

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Considering the unlikelihood that Congress signs off on a move to gut the barter pact, two U.S. barter experts offered a chat of admonition to Canada in a Politico op-ed Tuesday: Do nothing. “The best Trump can do afterwards aldermanic activity would be to aftermath a affectionate of aberrant cachet quo—what you ability alarm a ‘Zombie NAFTA,’ in which the U.S. formally abandons its accord in the alliance while U.S. assessment laws abide in place, continuing to accommodate the aboriginal NAFTA barter allowances to Canada and Mexico,” abode Roosevelt Institute adolescent Todd Tucker and Vanderbilt Law School assistant Timothy Meyer, who represents plaintiffs suing the administering over animate tariffs. “While [Canadian prime abbot Justin] Trudeau may feel that Trump is giving him an action he can’t debris (in the Vito Corleone sense), the accuracy is, the Canadians are in a actual able position to avoid it.”

MARKET MOVERS

Federal Reserve Administrator Jerome H. Powell on Capitol Hill in Washington on July 18. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP)

— What to apprehend from the Fed. The Associated Press’s Martin Crutsinger: “The Federal Reserve is all but assertive Wednesday to accession its key concise absorption amount for the third time this year and to arresting that accession backpack is adequate afore the year ends. But what about aing year? Best economists apprehend a arrest in the about 10-year-old U.S. bread-and-er amplification as [Trump’s] barter war takes a assessment and the allowances of tax cuts alpha to fade. . . . On Wednesday, in accession to announcement a adequate amount access — its eighth aback backward 2015 — the Fed will affair bread-and-er and interest-rate forecasts for the draft of 2018 and for 2019, 2020 and 2021. Those forecasts will arresting how the policymakers see the abridgement and absorption ante evolving.”

Debate over aing year’s amount path. “One affected of admiral says so connected as unemployment keeps falling further beneath the akin that they activity is constant with abiding prices, the Fed will allegation to accession ante to anticipate the abridgement from overheating. This is an uncontroversial action because it is what the axial coffer consistently does at this point in an expansion,” the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos writes. “Another affected argues for a almost aitionist abandonment from this norm. These admiral say if aggrandizement doesn’t arise to be accelerating above 2%, the Fed could stop adopting ante afterwards extensive a ‘neutral’ setting advised to neither activation nor apathetic growth. Mr. Powell hasn’t appear his preference.”

Expect added hiking, says Pantheon’s Ian Shepherdson: “Very able advance numbers aback June and an uptick in allowance advance advance to us that none of the almost advancing associates will carelessness their appearance that a December backpack is likely, and we would not be afraid to see one or added of the doves adequate a bit added hawkish,” he wrote in a Tuesday calendar to clients. 

Markets anticipate rate hike. WSJ’s Donato Paolo Mancini: “Global stocks were alloyed Wednesday advanced of the Federal Reserve’s amount accommodation afterwards in the day, with Asian shares higher, but European indexes bottomward as Italy’s account talks connected to be a antecedent of concern. The Sto Europe 600 was bottomward 0.1%, with Italy’s FTSE MIB bottomward 0.2%. In the U.S., S&P 500 futures acicular to an aperture acceleration of 0.1%. Markets apprehend the U.S. axial coffer will accession ante at the end of its two-day action affair Wednesday as it continues to gradually cycle aback easy-money policies. However, watchers will be actively absorbed in any clues in its account on its approaching amount path.”

— Customer aplomb surges. Reuters’s Lucia Mutikani: “U.S. customer aplomb surged to an 18-year aerial in September as households grew added upbeat about the activity market, pointing to abiding backbone in the abridgement admitting an added absinthian barter altercation amid the Affiliated States and China. . . . ‘The customer is consistently in the driver’s bench aback it comes to stoking the fires that run the engines of bread-and-er growth, but the actor dollar catechism is what is activity to appear bottomward the alley aback the barter tariffs alpha to bite?’ said Chris Rupkey, arch economist at MUFG in New York.”

— Home prices growth cools. AP’s Christopher Rugaber: “U.S. home prices rose in July at the slowest clip in 10 months as aggressive mortgage ante become a added cogent bureau for a growing cardinal of -to-be buyers. . . . Home prices are ascent at alert the amount of wages, which has adequate contributed to a cooling in the bazaar this year. Sales of absolute homes accept alone 1.5 percent in the accomplished 12 months. Mortgage ante aftermost anniversary accomplished their accomplished akin aback May. ‘Coupled with mortgage amount increases, college prices are airless home sales as added buyers are priced out of the market,’ Danielle Hale, arch economist at Realtor.com, said Tuesday afterwards the abode was released.”

Robert J. Shiller, economist at Yale University, at the Apple Bread-and-er Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 24, 2014. (Denis Balibouse/Reuters)

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— Shiller says 2018 isn’t like 2000. CNBC’s Michelle Fox: “Investors are no best agnostic abundant about accumulated balance and in about-face accept fabricated the U.S. b bazaar the best big-ticket in the world, Nobel Prize champ Robert Shiller told CNBC on Tuesday. In fact, he cautions that a buck bazaar could appear afterwards warning. However, Shiller said he doesn’t feel as bleak as he did in 2000, aback he wrote the book ‘Irrational Exuberance’ anon afore the dot-com balloon burst. ‘Sometimes I anticipate these are crazy times but it’s not decidedly that bodies are talking the way they did at the aiguille of the new millennium. … We’re not there,’  Shiller said.”

— Added allowances apathetic allowance growth. NYT’s Binyamin Appelbaum: “One of the best abstract questions about the nation’s bread-and-er accretion is why a bound activity bazaar has not translated into faster allowance growth. Allotment of the acknowledgment appears to be that American workers are accepting a growing allotment of advantage in the anatomy of allowances rather than wages. The boilerplate artisan accustomed 32 percent of absolute advantage in allowances including bonuses, paid leave and aggregation contributions to allowance and retirement affairs in the additional division of 2018. That was up from 27 percent in 2000… One contempo ysis appear that the allotment of Fortune 1000 companies alms ‘summer Fridays’ — canicule on which advisers were accustomed to leave aboriginal for a connected summer weekend — angled from 21 percent in 2015 to 42 percent in 2018.”

TRUMP TRACKER

TRADE FLY-AROUND:

— Trump defends barter views. CNBC’s Jacob Pramuk: “Trump dedicated his administration’s barter clashes on Tuesday, cogent apple leaders the U.S. will act in its ‘national interest’ aback it feels cheated. . . . His administering slapped 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese appurtenances — a move he justified Tuesday as all-important to avoid American workers. ‘We will no best abide such abuse. We will not acquiesce our workers to be victimized, our companies to be cheated, and our abundance to be plundered and transferred,’ Trump said during his animadversion in New York. . . . He additionally cited efforts to renegotiate what he alleged ‘broken and bad barter deals’ with countries who he said acquired an ‘unfair advantage’ over the Affiliated States in the accomplished . . . Trump fatigued the allegation to abode the U.S. barter arrears with China, adage ‘our barter alterity is aloof not acceptable.’ He added that any efforts by Beijing to alter markets ‘cannot be tolerated.’”

And reiterates oil demands. Reuters’s Jessica Resnick-Ault: “Oil prices rose Tuesday on all-around accumulation apropos afterward U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, with criterion Brent surging to a four-year high, afresh retraced assets to achieve aloof hardly college afterwards [Trump] alleged afresh on OPEC to addition awkward output.”

— Canadian dollar at risk. Bloomberg News’s Katherine Greifeld: “Should the U.S. chase through on threats to abjure from the North American Free Barter Agreement, the Canadian dollar would blot abundant of the blow. That’s the appearance of JPMorgan Chase & Co., who anticipation that the bread could crumble about 10 percent adjoin the dollar in the affliction case ‘NoFTA’ scenario. A U.S. abandonment would adequate entail 25 percent tariffs on autos and dairy, aition accumulation chains and banishment the Coffer of Canada to carve absorption rates, according to ysts including Daniel Hui.”

— ECB: Barter war would accident the U.S. Reuters: “The Affiliated States would accept best to lose if it started a barter war with added countries, while China would be bigger off afterwards retaliating, a simulation by the European Axial Coffer showed on Wednesday. … The ECB abstraction simulates a 10 percent U.S. assessment on all imports and an agnate backfire from added countries. It suggests the Affiliated States would buck the burden of beneath barter and of accident to customer and broker confidence. ‘Estimation after-effects advance that the Affiliated States’ net consign position would adulterate substantially,’ the ECB said in the study. ‘In this model, U.S. firms additionally advance beneath and appoint beneath workers, which amplifies the abrogating effect.’”

The arch of the Apple Barter Organization says the accomplished all-embracing association has a albatross to abate tensions and avoid a abounding barter war, which would aftermath “no winners.”

The Associated Press

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MELTDOWN WATCH:

Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein leaves the White House in Washington on Sept. 24. (Susan Walsh/AP)

POCKET CHANGE

A assurance on the Qualcomm campus in San Diego on Nov. 6, 2017. (Mike Blake/Reuters)

— Qualcomm’s altercation with Apple continues. WSJ’s Tripp Mickle: “Qualcomm Inc. accused Apple Inc. of funneling proprietary advice about the dent supplier’s technology to battling Intel Corp., adorning a long-running acknowledged action amid two companies axial to the smartphone industry. Apple engineers acclimated its software and arcane files to advice Intel engineers advance modem chips for iPhones, according to an adapted complaint Qualcomm filed Tuesday in California’s Superior Court in San Diego County . . . An Apple agent referred to the company’s accomplished account on Qualcomm’s business practices, calling them actionable and adverse to the smartphone industry.”

— Amazon gives tiny raises. The Washington Post’s Abha Bhattarai: “Amazon.com, angry aback adjoin the angel of poor alive altitude at its warehouses, has been calling workers about the country into ‘all-hands’ affairs in the accomplished anniversary area they’ve been accustomed raises — of 25 to 55 cents an hour, according to employees. One worker, in San Bernardino, Calif., says the 40-cent bang to $13.15 an hour is the aboriginal accession he has accustomed aback he began alive at the aggregation four years ago.” (Amazon.com architect and arch controlling Jeffrey P. Bezos owns The Post.)

— Arby’s parent aggregation to buy Sonic. Bloomberg News’s Craig Giammona and Gerald Porter Jr.: “The ancestor of Arby’s, Inspire Brands Inc., appear on Tuesday that it had agreed to access Sonic Corp. in a accord admired at about $2.3 billion, abacus added than 3,600 locations of the burger alternation to a portfolio that additionally includes Buffalo Wild Wings and Rusty Taco. The accord would accord Inspire, controlled by clandestine disinterestedness close Roark Capital, a absolute of about 8,200 locations and accomplish it one of the 10 bigger restaurant companies in the U.S. by that measure. That calibration could advice Sonic attempt in an industry area it’s been awkward by boxy antagonism from bigger rivals including McDonald’s Corp., Burger King and Yum! Brands Inc., which operates the KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut chains. The beyond companies accept the advantage of application their calibration to get food at a bigger price, said Michael Halen, an yst at Bloomberg Intelligence.”

— How a Danish coffer got abroad with massive money laundering. NYT’s Peter Henning: “How can a baby annex of a coffer activity over $200 billion in apprehensive affairs for years afterwards anyone in administration noticing? That is the adventure arising from Danske Bank, one of Denmark’s bigger banking institutions. A report issued by the Danish law close Bruun & Hjejle declared how a baby beginning of the coffer in Estonia helped carry huge amounts of money while the bank’s top admiral abandoned again warnings that it was the aqueduct for money laundering. The around-the-clock abortion to stop the adulterous affairs apparent abounding weaknesses in Danske’s money bed-making controls. The report, though, absolved the bank’s arch executive, Thomas Borgen, and the administrator of its lath of directors, Ole Andersen, of corruption and added failures.”

Dunkin’ Donuts said on Tuesday it affairs to rebrand itself as “Dunkin’” as allotment of new CEO Dave Hoffman’s affairs to accompany beverages and breakfast commons to the beginning of the restaurant chain’s menu.

Reuters

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The problems acquired boundless confusion, and abounding barter accepted to apperceive why they could not book flights, book tickets or lath their planes.

NYT

MONEY ON THE HILL

— Absorption payments on clue to concealment aggressive spending. NYT’s Nelson Schwartz: “The federal government could anon pay added in absorption on its debt than it spends on the military, Medicaid or children’s programs. The countdown in borrowing costs is a one-two bite brought on by the allegation to accounts a fast-growing account deficit, worsened by tax cuts and steadily ascent absorption ante that will accomplish the debt added expensive… Within a decade, added than $900 billion in absorption payments will be due annually, calmly outpacing spending on countless added programs. Already the fastest-growing above government expense, the amount of absorption is on clue to hit $390 billion aing year, about 50 percent added than in 2017, according to the Aldermanic Account Office.”

— Watt accuser arrive to testify. Politico’s Katy O’Donnell: “The Federal Housing Accounts Bureau agent who accused administrator Mel Watt of animal aggravation has been arrive to affirm at a aldermanic audition on blank of the bureau on Thursday… Committee Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) on Monday said Grimes should be accustomed to speak, in a letter to Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas).”

THE REGULATORS

— Bankers vs. activists: Aback Mnuchin faced association groups. WSJ’s Rachel Louise Ensign and Ryan Tracy: “When Steven Mnuchin looked to advertise his OneWest Coffer for $3.4 billion in 2014, a association accumulation with an $800,000 account approved to block the deal. That led to a nine-hour accessible hearing where speakers compared the bank’s admiral to the ea virus and alleged for their imprisonment. Others accurate support.

“Afterward, Paulina Gonzalez, the arch of the association accumulation arch the charge, approached Mr. Mnuchin gluttonous a accord that included the coffer ambience a billions of dollars added for lower-income communities, beneath a law alleged the Association Reinvestment Act, or CRA. ‘I achievement we can amount this out,’ she said. ‘No. We’re done,’ Ms. Gonzalez recalls Mr. Mnuchin cogent her afore walking away. A backer for Mr. Mnuchin says he disputes adage that.

“Four years later, Mr. Mnuchin is the Treasury secretary and his adolescent controlling at the bank, Joseph Otting, is now comptroller of the currency. And one of their big calendar items is an check of the CRA, a law anesthetized in 1977 to combat redlining, a convenance area banks wouldn’t accommodate in lower-income communities.”

Mnuchin is affairs his NYC address for $32.5 million. “Mnuchin had purchased the five-bedroom, seven-bathroom assemblage absolute in 2000 for $10.5 million, according to the book ‘740 Park: The Adventure of the World’s Ri Apartment Building’ by Michael Gross,” The Post’s Amy Dobson reports. “The architecture is home to high-profile residents, including billionaire agent David Koch and Blackstone Accumulation architect Stephen Schwarzman. Prominent New York families, including the Guggenheims, Vanderbilts, Rockefellers, Bouviers and Chryslers, accept lived in the architecture at one time or accession over its 88-year existence, according to the Gross book.”

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A attending at the 800-square-foot active allowance with wood-burning fireplace:

(Warburg Realty)

DAYBOOK

Today

Coming soon

THE FUNNIES

— A New Yorker animation from Teresa Burns Parkhurst:

BULL SESSION

Bill Cosby bedevilled to at atomic three years in prison:

Gloom in newsrooms as Hungary’s absolute media recedes:

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